Why it is ok to change your mind.
Small d decisions are those that are often temporary in nature. More often than not, small d decisions are made in a fluid, evolving situation when information is scarce, hard to come by, or further corroboration is necessary. You might want to make small d decisions to run small, low-risk experiments to test a hypothesis. This is a common approach used in coaching so a coachee can test hypotheses formed during coaching sessions in the complex systems in which they operate.
Big D Decisions, however, are hard and fast and difficult to change once made. Make Big D decisions when ambiguity is low, speed is of the essence or when you have collected all the available information. Big D decisions can also be made for less important and inconsequential decisions. Therefore, avoid spending too much time on trivial issues that increase clutter and distraction.
It isn't crucial when making decisions that your team and the people that you work with understand which type of decision you are making (d or D). But clarity upfront will go a long way to cut out misunderstandings and the inevitable frustrations when small d decisions are revisited and changed.
Small d decisions may have been on Jeff Bezos' mind when he previously shared his observations on the importance of being able to change one's decisions.
"He said people who were right a lot of the time were people who often changed their minds. He doesn't think consistency of thought is a particularly positive trait. It's perfectly healthy — encouraged, even — to have an idea tomorrow that contradicted your idea today.
He's observed that the smartest people are constantly revising their understanding, reconsidering a problem they thought they'd already solved. They're open to new points of view, new information, new ideas, contradictions, and challenges to their own way of thinking.
This doesn't mean you shouldn't have a well formed point of view, but it means you should consider your point of view as temporary."
Robust decision frameworks help us make better decisions and be open to changing them. A framework is essential to help vet the quality of decisions and think through how a recommendation or decision has been made, not just the content of the proposals. The common problem is that many decision-makers focus exclusively on content when they review and challenge. Yet this, more often than not, misses the more significant issues and hence why a systematic review of the decision-making process, one aimed at mitigating biases that may have influenced the recommendations and crucial decisions, is necessary.
Being able to constructively and passionately debate ideas and decisions is a sign of a properly functioning team. Conversely, a symptom of a dysfunctional team is one where debate is discouraged, and team members don't speak up to ask questions, challenge and offer alternative ideas. Not speaking up leads to sub-optimal decision-making because the team is not benefiting from the true ideas and perspective of team members, e.g. we need to revisit this decision because x and y have happened.
An effective team can be smarter than any of its individual members - and hence make better decisions. This power stems from the team's potential to integrate information gathered by many different members accurately. In Victorian England, the Reverend Thomas Bayes developed a mathematical theory for combining information. His theory shows how to weigh bits of information in proportion to their expected payoff to make the best possible overall prediction. The theorem offers a systematic way to update your view of a hypothesis on the basis of evidence.
Effective teams don't explicitly use the Bayes theorem. Still, they are able to combine information in an effective way to integrate people's varying opinions by encouraging constructive conflict. In high-performing and highly effective teams, it is ok to disagree and have a different point of view. Through constructive conflict, teams can arrive at better decisions, whether they are made with a d or a D.
Please get in touch if you would like to discuss coaching for your team in 2023.
📫 - Favourite quote
"Knowledge isn't free. You have to pay attention."
- Professor Richard P Feynman
I became fascinated with Richard Feynman ever since reading about the 1986 Space shuttle Challenger disaster and the many leadership failures and poor decision-making that resulted in the tragedy. Feynman had the superpower to simplify complex things so the person on the street could understand them. You can read more about the Feynman technique here.
🧐 - Newly discovered content of interest
50 Cognitive Biases in the Modern World
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/50-cognitive-biases-in-the-modern-world/
All politicians and journalists should be made to take classes on these biases, so they stop jumping to conclusions and ignoring the second and third-order implications of what they say and do.
🧾 - An absorbing and insightful (short) read
First up, this isn't a short read, but it is so good that I had to share it with you.
On Being a Happy, Healthy, and Ethical Member of an Unhappy, Unhealthy, and Unethical Profession.
The TL/DNR is we need to get better at asking questions to seek out specific information rather than accepting generic or neutral information. This is especially true when attempting to evaluate something of importance, whether when hiring someone, considering working for a new boss, or mergers and acquisitions etc.
Here is a short extract for you:
"Every big firm claims that it is different. Every big firm denies that it is a sweatshop. Every big firm insists, that although its attorney work hard, they lead balanced lives. This is almost always false. It has to be. There is no free lunch…"
🐣 - Something I am doing differently or entirely new
Walking, not running.
I have been recovering from an ankle injury for the past two months that has significantly impacted my ability to run (inversely correlated to the size of my waistline).
As my GP immediately identified, running is crucial to my life strategy. I was really impressed with our quickly my GP hit the nail on the head. I need to get back out running. I hope to do so early in 2023 after a lengthy period working with a physio to recover.
⚖ - Et cetera
Perhaps the following will provide insight and be of help with a problem you are currently facing:
Do you need a new perspective on a challenge you're struggling with?
Are you starting a new role and want to make a positive impact and quickly establish credibility?
My latest article is here - "The 11th rep."
The Paragone Podcast - uncovers and explores #lazythinking
I'd love to hear from you. I read all messages and try to respond in a timely fashion.
All the best, until next year.
Rob