Here's what I want to share this month:
đ„ - Make better decisions with a pre-mortem
A core principle of effective leadership is making decisions, and the more senior you get, the more you have to get used to making decisions based on incomplete and imperfect information.
Navigating decisions under such constraints isn't just a useful skill; it's an imperative. In today's fast-paced, intricate business landscape, waiting for every piece of the puzzle before making a move isn't just impracticalâit's detrimental. The pitfalls of analysis paralysis are many: deferred decisions often resurface at the least opportune moments, forcing leaders into choices that are anything but optimal.
Given my line of work, it's hardly a revelation that I frequently coach clients on honing their decision-making prowess. Whether it's pushing them beyond their comfort zones to explore unconventional solutions or introducing structured frameworks to mitigate cognitive biases, the goal remains the same: better decisions. For decisions of lesser consequence and reversible - what we might call "Type 2" decisionsâthe focus is on forming habits that sidestep overthinking and procrastination. For more consequential and irreversible "Type 1" decisions, the emphasis shifts to processes that elevate decision quality.
One particularly potent tool for these high-stakes Type 1 decisions is the "pre-mortem." If you're familiar with a post-mortemâthe forensic examination conducted to determine a cause of deathâthen consider the pre-mortem its proactive cousin. Originated by psychologist Gary Klein, this technique flips the script, moving the examination from post-event to pre-event.
I regularly employ pre-mortems with clients contemplating significant career shifts or organisational moves, as well as those launching new projects and strategic initiatives. The exercise consistently yields insights that not only mitigate risks but also substantially reduce the likelihood of failure in new ventures. So, the next time you're faced with a decision of consequence, remember: the best leaders don't just make decisions. They make them wisely.
đïž Monthly Challenge: Execute a Team Pre-Mortem for High Stakes Projects
Identify a pivotal project or decision on the horizonâbe it a career-changing opportunity, a new business venture, a substantial investment, or a restructuring initiative. Before you set the wheels in motion, assemble your team for a pre-mortem session.
Present the following statement to your team. It is helpful with visualisation techniques like this one to be as vivid, specific and reflective as possible.
Assume itâs 12 months from now, and our project is a complete disaster. What went wrong?
Detail the fallout of this hypothetical disaster as concretely as possibleâlost funding, layoffs, market share ceded to competitors, diminished profitability, squandered time and resources, and so on.
Next, instruct each team member to independently jot down every conceivable reason for the project's failure, emphasising factors they might usually hesitate to bring up.
Once people have stopped writing, invite each participantâincluding yourselfâto share one reason from their list. Continue this round-robin until every potential pitfall has been aired and recorded.
After the session concludes, your role as the team leader is to scrutinise this collective intelligence. Your aim? To fortify your strategy by identifying actionable steps to mitigate these envisioned risks.
By confronting failure in a hypothetical space, you're not just preparing for adversityâyou're preempting it. This exercise allows you to foresee potential stumbling blocks, thereby equipping you to sidestep them when the real work begins.
đ« - A quote that I am currently pondering
This month, I offer not one but two quotes, each resonating with the core theme of our newsletter.
The first serves as a cautionary note for those conducting post-mortems:
"In the distorting mirror of hindsight, nearly every human action or decision can be made to appear flawed, even foolish."
Anthony Hidden QC
Hidden's wisdom, drawn from his investigation into the 1988 Clapham Junction rail disaster, offers a timely reminder for those spearheading COVID-19 inquiries globally. It underscores the perils of judging past actions without accounting for the limitations of the information available at the time.
Our second musing comes from economist Tyler Cowen:
"Context is the scarce commodity."
This succinct observation opens a Pandora's box of secondary and tertiary questions, particularly around the subject of incentivesâa topic we'll delve into at a later date.
The ability to grasp context is not just a crucial element in decision-making; it's a hallmark of effective leadership. When evaluating candidates for leadership rolesâor knowledge-based positions more broadlyâwe ought to weigh their aptitude for generating nuanced understandings across diverse domains.
đ§Ÿ - An absorbing and insightful (short) read
Cormac McCarthy (RIP) wrote the best mission statement ever for the Santa Fe Institute:
Read and listen to it here.
Who couldn't be inspired by that mission statement?
This should prompt you to ask, "How does my organisation's Mission/Purpose/North Star statement compare?" Good luck!
đ€ - If you did have the answer to this question, what would it be?
If you were to invite your most important stakeholder to sit down beside you and ask them, "What further work do we have to do together?" what would they say?
â - Et cetera
Perhaps the following will provide insight and be of help with a problem you are currently facing:
Want to make a bigger impact?
Do you need a new perspective on a challenge you're struggling with?
Are you starting a new role and want to make a positive impact and quickly establish credibility?
My latest article from the blog is here -Â "Where were all the coaches?"
I'd love to hear from you. I read all messages and try to respond in a timely fashion.
All the best, until next time.
Rob